Follow the Science: which one?
COVID-19 was a 'High Consequence Infectious Disease' (HCID) in UK until it wasn't, on 19 March 2020
Professor Martin Neil shared thoughtful evidence on scientific advice(s) provided through March 2020 concerning COVID-19 pandemic management in UK:
COVID19 was no longer a ‘High Consequence Infectious Disease’ (HCID)…
In its meeting of 13 March 2020, responding to a request by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), the Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) unanimously agreed that that COVID-19 should not be classified as a ‘High Consequence Infectious Disease’ (HCID):
The [ACDP] Chair informed the Committee that he had been contacted by DHSC regarding the classification of COVID-19 as a High Consequence Infectious Disease (HCID). The Committee unanimously agreed that this infection should not be classified as a HCID.
On 19 March 2020, the UK Health Security Agency removed COVID-19 from the list of High Consequence Infectious Diseases (HCID) in the UK, after having provisionally added it on the list on 16 January 2020. Here an excerpt from its statement:
As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be an HCID in the UK. There are many diseases which can cause serious illness which are not classified as HCIDs.
The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.
The ACDP is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.
The World Health Organization (WHO) continues to consider COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), therefore the need to have a national, coordinated response remains and this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response.
…But a scare and persuade (and mandate) strategy was enacted to manage it
Few days later, on 22 March 2020, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) provided options for increasing adherence to social distancing measures, recommending that:
[Persuasion, point 2] The perceived level of personal threat needs to be increased among those who are complacent, using hard-hitting emotional messaging. To be effective this must also empower people by making clear the actions they can take to reduce the threat.
[Appendix B, point 2] Use media to increase sense of personal threat
[Coercion, point 7] enacting legislation, with community involvement, to compel key social distancing measures.
[Appendix B, point 7] Consider enacting legislation to compel required behaviour
[Coercion Section and Appendix B, point 7] use of social disapproval for failure to comply
A scare and persuade (and mandate) strategy was enacted notwithstanding available scientific evidence that excluced the COVID-19 from being classified as a ‘High Consequence Infectious Disease’, that is, an acute infectious disease, with high case-fatality rate requiring an enhanced individual, population and system response:
In the UK, a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) is defined according to the following criteria:
acute infectious disease
typically has a high case-fatality rate
may not have effective prophylaxis or treatment
often difficult to recognise and detect rapidly
ability to spread in the community and within healthcare settings
requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely.
We did follow ‘the’ science, didn’t? Follow the money might provide an alternative explanation…